Scenario planning in airline industry

The idea of scenarios describing possible stories about the future is probably as old as mankind. A scenario is a tool for ordering one's perceptions about alternative future environments in which today's decisions might be played out [Wilkinson, 1996]. As a methodology, it has long been used by the military. It can prepare us in the same way that it prepares corporate executives: it helps us understand the uncertainties that lie before us, and what they might mean. It helps us rehearse our responses to those possible futures. In addition, it helps us spot them as they begin to unfold. Only in the last 30 years, in the face of increasing uncertainty and complexity, have corporations and other large, global organisations begun to develop sophisticated scenario planning processes. Royal Dutch Shell made the tool famous by using it to great effect; Shell anticipated and was prepared for the dramatic events within the Oil industry during the last 30 years because of using scenario planning [Schoemaker, ea. 1992]. In this chapter is explained how a scenario-planning model can lead to a learning experience.